Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.068542 3.307692 3.577820 3.910782 4.318134 4.812126 5.477487
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.754652 3.055108 3.417877 3.903840 4.566869 5.495671 7.036262
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.556231 2.884518 3.297810 3.883285 4.748733 6.115859 8.917825
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.366071 2.694807 3.118225 3.737473 4.698370 6.342499 10.328880
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.321659 2.682901 3.165439 3.909512 5.167502 7.686694 17.140481
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.194973 2.549583 3.029506 3.784277 5.104164 7.935361 21.827588
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.079642 2.423193 2.891890 3.638099 4.971414 7.966706 26.467683
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.999095 2.338943 2.807531 3.565923 4.961640 8.313692 41.399065
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.981974 2.340049 2.845575 3.695069 5.373023 10.192333 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.987821 2.372767 2.932199 3.918431 6.065901 14.464879 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.959383 2.354104 2.937867 3.998377 6.464758 19.173961 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.928922 2.330394 2.933149 4.057617 6.839166 27.186822 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.852863 2.241765 2.827975 3.929394 6.701105 29.657925 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.804395 2.192281 2.783714 3.918354 6.925697 48.633448 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.758648 2.144225 2.737878 3.897412 7.117878 129.049363 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.694475 2.065536 2.636499 3.750472 6.835251 111.617191 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.689967 2.076639 2.685104 3.923831 7.788695 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.637202 2.011481 2.600179 3.797628 7.524117 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.583941 1.943971 2.508564 3.650366 7.143914 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.545596 1.898283 2.452486 3.577674 7.060101 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.541473 1.904984 2.486284 3.707753 7.912186 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.549691 1.931060 2.555552 3.932821 9.554378 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.536883 1.923238 2.563719 4.013404 10.581394 NaN NaN